Understanding Win Rate and Risk-to-Reward Approach
When people ask about trading performance, one of the most common questions is: “What’s your win rate?” It’s a great question — but the answer makes the most sense when it’s viewed alongside how we manage risk.
Our Historical Win Rate
Across all assets and over a long historical period, our trading strategies have produced a win rate that typically ranges between 45% and 48%.
In simple terms, this means that slightly under half of all trades have been winners. While that might sound low at first, it’s actually very common in professional and systematic trading. A strategy doesn’t need to win most of the time — it needs to make more on winning trades than it loses on losing ones.
Our Risk-to-Reward Philosophy
This is where risk management comes in.
All of our trade setups are designed with a minimum risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2. That means we always aim to make at least twice as much on a winning trade as we’re willing to risk on a losing one.
In practice:
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A losing trade is kept small and controlled
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A winning trade is allowed more room to grow
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Fewer wins are needed to remain profitable over time
This approach is a core part of how we trade and helps explain why a sub-50% win rate can still be viable when combined with disciplined risk management.
Why the Win Rate Can Change
Our win rate isn’t a fixed number and can vary depending on several factors, including:
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The asset being traded
Different instruments behave differently and respond to market conditions in their own way. -
Seasonality and time of year
Some periods historically offer cleaner setups than others. -
Market volatility
Higher volatility can increase opportunity but also introduce more noise, while lower volatility can change trade dynamics. -
Overall market conditions
Trending, ranging, or transitional markets can all impact results.
Because of this, short-term performance may differ from long-term averages.
Why Win Rate Alone Doesn’t Tell the Full Story
A common misconception is that a higher win rate automatically means better performance. In reality, win rate without context can be misleading.
What really matters is the relationship between:
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How much is risked per trade
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How much is made on winning trades
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How consistently the strategy is applied
By targeting a minimum 1:2 risk-to-reward, our focus is on allowing winners to outweigh losers over a large sample of trades — rather than trying to win every trade.
Taking a Long-Term View
Trading should always be evaluated over many trades and across different market environments. Individual losses are inevitable, and even strings of losses can occur. The goal is not perfection, but consistency, discipline, and risk control.
As always, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, and market conditions can change.
In Summary
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Historical win rate: approximately 45%–48% across all assets
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Risk-to-reward: minimum 1:2 on all trade setups
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Losses are controlled, while winners are designed to be larger
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Performance varies by asset, seasonality, volatility, and market conditions
We believe that clear expectations, transparency, and strong risk management are essential parts of long-term trading success.